WND Telecom

Surprisingly, mobile operators in more than 100 countries — greater than half of all recognized countries — have yet to deploy their first 3G services. And many more markets only have a single 3G service operational. The consensus from industry analysts is that the majority of cellular handsets in 2013 will still rely on 2G mobile voice technology. Mobile voice, once the “bread and butter” of cellular operator revenues, is capped through “all you can eat” monthly plans while engaging data services that place the resources of the Web in one’s hand are the revenue growth driver. Operators of second-generation (2G) GSM and CDMA networks want to participate in the continued explosion of mobile data services, but find 3G a short-term play.

Instead, they’re considering a move directly to fourth-generation (4G) technologies, such as the IEEE’s WiMAX standard or 3GPP’s upcoming Long Term Evolution (LTE (News - Alert)) protocol. Major 3G operators and new entrants are not resting on their laurels either. Each group is assembling 4G strategies now for introductions in the 2010~2012 timeframe. 4G networks promise new revenue streams and opportunities to lure subscribers into high-speed utopia.

Operators who haven’t made the jump to 3G could benefit from early 4G adoption as a leap-frog strategy. Mobile WiMAX is the only commercially available 4G network and client device solution available in today’s market. With the earliest commercial LTE deployments still one to three years away, LTE will be positioned to enable service providers to attempt catching up with their WiMAX competitors. Offering the latest mobile voice and data services is more critical in markets where 3G services have yet to become established. This is particularly true of emerging markets where operators have recently been awarded 3G licenses, such as China and India. The late entry of these markets has providers questioning the significance and depth of their 3G deployment, pondering a shift in investment towards next-generation solutions. 4G networks promise significant performance enhancements for data services, while the primary motivation for operators is the efficient use of spectrum afforded by these optimized protocols.

Russia’s Scartel is an example of a new carrier entrant moving directly to 4G. The recently announced Yota service offers IP-only aircards and a combo GSM/WiMAX handset from vendor HTC (News - Alert) Corp. A voice call on the 2G/4G phone uses the GSM radio when calling another mobile phone; uses voice over WiMAX (VoIP) when calling another Yota handset; using WiMAX exclusively for high-speed data services and mobile web. Scartel is deploying 1,600 WiMAX base stations from Samsung (News - Alert) operating in the 2.5 GHz frequency band. The cellular voice service operates in tri-band GSM/GPRS/EDGE at 900/1800/1900 MHz.

3G operators are making and will continue the move to 4G. However, it is not a direct cutover from one service to the next. In all cases, 3G operators are providing an overlay network that offers the best in voice and data options. South Korea’s KT (News - Alert) combines EV-DO (launched in 2002) with mobile WiMAX and HSPA with mobile WiMAX (3G and 4G) using handset PDAs from Samsung and LG Electronics. US carrier Sprint Nextel (News - Alert) has announced plans to combine use of its CDMA network with mobile WiMAX in 2009. The same dual-mode network strategy is expected by more mobile carriers using WiMAX and eventually LTE will enter the market as an additional 4G choice. LTE is expected to become commercially available in Japan and the United States in the 2010~2011 timeframe followed by other markets.

When considering 4G options, operators heavily invested in 3G face a different dilemma. While working to identify profitability of their 3G services, these carriers are drawing up strategies that alter their circuit-switched network core designed for voice to support native IP services, like those found in the enterprise organization. The move to IP networks (whether WiMAX, LTE, or future 4G standards approved by the United Nations’ ITU) is a “forklift” upgrade, meaning that much of the core network provided by the operator must be converted to use IP networking equipment instead of a software or line card change. 2G/3G networks and 4G networks also use different spectrum. The desire for broadband speeds by hundreds of users at greater than 1 Mbps requires access to 10, 20 and ideally 30 MHz of spectrum per market (for a 3:1 frequency reuse reducing interference between base station sectors). As a result, WiMAX and LTE require new spectrum, base stations, additional backhaul, client radios and upgrades to the core network that support the high rates demanded by IP traffic.

Skipping an entire mobile technology generation is not a new concept. By 2003, the introduction of 3G had been delayed a couple years from early estimates giving carriers reason to start looking at alternatives. Move ahead six years and the situation is very similar. The largest wireless carriers, primarily operating in mature markets, have moved to 3G, while the majority of countries and global subscribers remain locked in to 2G mobile voice service. The time to market advantage that mobile WiMAX offers for implementing 4G today is an opportunity for operators to provide mobile broadband services to all device types, close the digital divide and generate incremental revenue.